This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.
Given that people in the 20 to 30 year old age group (bragging of “strong immune systems”) are currently going to sold-out Post Malone concerts and otherwise treating Covid-19 in a rather cavalier way, I thought it would be useful to look at the personal risk they are taking (ignoring the far greater risk to which they are exposing their elderly acquaintances with whom they later have contact, either directly or indirectly).
At https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf, the CDC has published mortality rates for influenza over the years. For people in the 25-34 year old age group in 2017, the risk of death from influenza and pneumonia was 0.9 per 100,000 or 9 per million. That is across the entire population, not just those who get the flu, so the risk of death among those who actually catch the flu is higher. Let’s guess that 1 person in 5 among 25-34 year olds actually catches the flu, so the death rate among those who actually catch the flu is 45 per million. I consider that estimate to be conservative (ie, probably too high).
Statistics for mortality rates from Covid-19 are squishier, especially because some cases are asymptomatic, making the death rate seem higher if one looks only at symptomatic cases. The web site at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ summarizes the best statistics from China as of March 5th.
That web page estimates that the death rate from all cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) for people in the 20-39 year old age group is 0.2%. That is 2,000 per million.
So Covid-19 is over 40 times more lethal than the flu to 20 to 30 year olds (2,000 per million or 1 in 500 versus 45 per million).
Death rates from the flu are 1/3 lower among school age children (relative to 25-34 year olds) but roughly the same for coronavirus. So coronavirus is over 120 times more lethal than the flu for school age children.
[An earlier version of this opinion piece contained inaccurate information about the risk of repeatedly joining crowds while Covid-19 is spreading. That paragraph has been removed. The author apologizes for his error. Joining crowds remains risky.]
