Forecast Discussion:

The heat goes on!  (How many more of these catchy phrases can I come up with?)

Figure 1 shows that with the upper air ridge (shown for many days now) and the surface high (shown for as many days) still in place, we warm up to record levels again this afternoon.  Temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal for today (82F).

We again have no chance of convection/thunderstorms today (Figure 2). It will be just dry, clear, and smoky at times. Figure 3 shows the smoke from local Colorado fires getting pulled back around to this side of the Rockies at times.  I saw some of it up in the distance north at sunset Friday PM.

Figure 1: the departure from normal temperature afternoon Saturday- surface temperatures from
Figure 5: the day 2 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Friday (valid Saturday).
Figure 3: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Saturday PM.

The longer range forecast:

We stay hot, dry, and smoky at times through Monday.  Then the winds of change approach as the western trough begins to make inroads towards us.  There might be some tropical moisture entrained into the flow as well from the eastern Pacific. Figure 4 is the GFS meteogram out 10 days.  Tuesday on into Wednesday, temperatures drop to below normal and ‘some’ rain chances return (scattered rain chances, at least).

Figure 4: the GFS temperature and ensemble precipitation meteogram forecast for the next 10 days from
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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