Skip to content

The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – September 14th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Broken record time:  we remain dry, clear, unusually warm (record heat at some stations), but now get a bit of local smoke.

The trough remains far off to the west as we sit under the giant ridge's western edge (Figure 1).  The ridge is squarely centered over Florence and is not helping that storm move in any direction for the next few days. There are almost no winds aloft over the SE U.S. Figure 2 is the surface map for later today with a surface high sitting over the state still. Hot and dry are the words.

We do have a few local fires that have begun. Smoke from those will begin to mar our beautiful blue skies and mountain views (Figure 3).  It doesn't look choking thick, but you might smell it at times.

Figure 1: The 500mb upper air analysis for Thursday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Friday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Friday PM.

The longer range discussion:

Very little changes through the weekend with summer heat still baking us.  It isn't until Tuesday/Wednesday that the ridge collapses eastward and the west coast trough begins to approach us for our next big cool down and returning rain chances (Figure 4).  More tomorrow!

Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for next Wednesday AM next week. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

53°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.88 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
77%
Wind
NNE 0.5 mph
Gust
2.2 mph
Wind Chill
53 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 AM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
69°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
73°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
76°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
70°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
65°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
62°F
Thunderstorms

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

77 °F

Turning cloudy; warm


Thunderstorms

Thursday Night

47 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, considerable cloudiness


Thunderstorms

Friday

69 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Rain

Saturday

46 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
7:50 PM

Based on AccuWeather data