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Forecast Discussion:
Will you have to shovel snow in the morning, or scrape the windshield? The short answer is - almost to probably. Figure 1 is the HRRR 15 hour snowfall accumulation and there is 2+ inches of snow drawn right up to Airport road, then nothing significant beyond that. Aarug! Figure 2 shows how much super cold air is still in place today with temperatures about 25°F below normal. This is our coldest day yet.
The GFS (Figure 3) still paints a hole on Longmont with no snow, but up to an inch all around. What is up with that!? The GEM model gives us about 1 inch by the end of tomorrow (Figure 4).
Figure 5 says the highest chances of snow and precipitation for Longmont occur between 5 a.m. and 2 p.m. There are smaller chances of precipitation beyond that. The weatherunderground model (also Figure 5) says approximately an inch. Since there is light sleet falling this evening at 10 p.m., getting some ice in the morning is pretty likely.
The longer range forecast:
As we get our possible snow, hurricane Michael is hitting the Florida panhandle possibly as a category 4 storm (not shown here). We moderate a bit for Friday and Saturday getting up to only 10°F below normal - then our next storm moves in with 3-5 inches predicted on weatherunderground for Saturday night into Sunday a.m.
The GFS gives us a total of about 4-5 inches (Figure 6) and the NAM gives us about 3-4 inches. This weekend storm is looking significant! More later!
