This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.
Forecast Discussion:
With an extreme-gorgeous-weather-warning being issued (not a real thing), one always must look ahead at the flies that may come. There are two tropical systems off the Mexican coast (Willa and Vicente (not Vincent as I typed in the graphic below)) that will feed moisture into the trough that is approaching (Figure 1). Tuesday AM we are still under the ridge with the tropical systems and trough just starting to interact (Figure 2). The surface map at this time shows Willa and Vicente down south and some moisture making it up to the four corners and western slopes (Figure 3).
For Wednesday, the trough is here and the weakness in the upper-air pattern is in central Mexico (Figure 4). This same model shows heavy rains in Mexico, Texas (they don't need it), and New Mexico. We have some moisture making it up a bit into Wyoming; east of the Rockies (Figure 5).
The total rainfall for Longmont is still really small. The GFS (Figure 6) gives us nearly nothing. The weatherunderground model shows 0.01 inch. Snow levels will remain up in the mid to higher mountains.
The longer range forecast:
Temperatures don't change much through Saturday next weekend, then the upper-air pattern sinks southward and we get more troughy, cooler and a touch wetter. Nothing notable, but it is a change from the near perfection of this weekend.
