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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 19th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

As covered over he last few days, our upper air trough from the southwestern states is moving out. More rain is falling in New Mexico and Texas (and Oklahoma) - but it is missing us (Figure 1). The upper air pattern map (Figure 2) shows that former cut-off low is getting absorbed into the flow. The ridge is ready to become dominate and warm us to the upper 60's F Saturday and lower 70's F Sunday. What a change in a week!

Note: I'll be on a big family vacation at the end of the month. There will be no updates to this column for the period October 26-Nov 4. I'll probably create a page of links to my favorite forecast pages in my absence.

Figure 1: The current surface map for Thursday afternoon from the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The current 500mb upper air map for Thursday afternoon from NCAR/UCAR.

The longer (longer!) range forecast:

As highlighted yesterday, we remain dry and mild until around Wednesday, next week, when a new trough approaches. More on that another day.

Let's look at the current state of the drought in the state. Figure 3 shows very severe drought still exists in the southwestern parts of the state. The western slopes are very dry as well. We, in Longmont, are now in a slightly-dry category. Also, on this site, was a neat plot of the various levels of the drought index over time. It (Figure 4) shows an interesting progression from a fair amount of drought statewide 3-4 years ago to little drought in the 2015-2016 zone then to more widespread drought over the last year (La Nina related?).

Pulling in some more LONG range winter forecasts (there are plenty on the interwebs) - Figure 5, from onthesnow.com has all of Colorado very close to normal in temperatures and precipitation. They do not have the weatherbell cold trend in the southeast. They do match weatherbell with warm and dry trend in the Pacific Northwest and our 'near normal' status. In Figure 6, they zoom in on the west and give our ski resorts 90-100% normal snowfall. Not too bad.

Finally, Figure 7 is from the Farmers Almanac site (not the Old Farmers Almanac). (I don't have much faith in either of these almanacs at all... is it really meteorology?) They give us extra snow and extra cold, for what its worth. The rest of the forecasts we've looked at, taken together, have us very close to normal cold, snow and rain.

Figure 3: the drought monitor graphic for Colorado published Tuesday from the USDA, NDMC, NOAA etc.

Figure 3: the drought index plot over time for Colorado published Tuesday from the USDA, NDMC, NOAA etc.

Figure 5: The winter precipitation outlook from www.onthesnow.com

Figure 5: The winter precipitation outlook for the western U.S. with snow pack forecasts for major ski resorts from www.onthesnow.com

Figure 7: The Farmer's Almanac winter forecast.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

61°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.74 Falling
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
24%
Wind
W 4.9 mph
Gust
12.4 mph
Wind Chill
61 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
39°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data