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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 13th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Let's not bury the lead:

Winter Weather Advisory

Issued: 10:56 PM Oct. 12, 2018 – National Weather Service

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY

TO NOON MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5

inches expected.

* WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of

Denver, Denver, Castle Rock and Greeley.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to noon MDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on icy and slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

I expect this might be upgraded to a winter storm watch tomorrow. I'll update as needed.

We'll still have nice 'warm-ish' temperatures today. The front wind shift line will pass around noon, but the cold air won't really arrive until later in the afternoon. We drop below freezing around 11 p.m. Precipitation chances begin around 7 p.m. when the temperatures are around 38°F - even if some models start the system with rain, I'm guessing it will be snow from the start. Figure one is a special graphic showing the surface front blasting through the state and a thick band of precipitation with moist up slope over much of the state.

Figure 2 shows how isolated, but stout, this storm is with precipitation tapering off later in the day Sunday. The heaviest snowfall will be between midnight and noon. We will stay below freezing, in the upper 20'sF Sunday. It will be really cold - a hard freeze.

So how much snow will we get?

My forecast for a sampling of cities is:

Ft. Collins 3-5", Berthoud 2-4", Estes park 5-10", Longmont 2-4", Boulder 3-6", eastern Denver 2-4", western Denver 3-5", the Palmer Divide communities 2-5".

Figure 3 is the hand-made forecast from the weather5280.com forecasters. They give Longmont 2-5".

Figure 4 is the GFS  which has 2-3".

Figure 5 is the NAM 3Km resolution model which has 3-4".

Figure 1: Special weather graphic from the NWS via Twitter.

Figure 2: the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 3: Special storm coverage graphic generated by the forecasters at weather5280.com

Figure 3: The total snowfall accumulation from Friday p.m. up to noon Monday from the GFS model and weather5280.com

Figure 5: The total snowfall accumulation from Friday PM up to Monday AM from the NAM model and tropicaltidbits.com

The longer range forecast:

It's so quiet, it doesn't get a graphic... Figure 2 shows it drying out and slowly warming for the rest of the next 10 days, but still remaining below normal for daily high temperatures.

Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

34°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.99 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
66%
Wind
WNW 2.2 mph
Gust
4.8 mph
Wind Chill
34 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 AM
31°F
Partly cloudy
Today
4 AM
30°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
28°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
26°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
7 AM
29°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 AM
36°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 AM
42°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
48°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
57°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
62°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Wednesday

54 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

26 °F

Increasing cloudiness


Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy with a shower in spots late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:51 AM
Sunset
7:21 PM

Based on AccuWeather data