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Forecast Discussion:
I'm on travel today (holiday weekend!). Many of you may be on travel as well, so I'll be brief...
The hottest of the hottest (maybe 95F in Longmont) is hitting today. We still have a surface high pressure center over the state at the surface. We are ahead of a cool front and sooth of a warm front (seen in Figure 1).
Chances of thunderstorms are very close to 0% today with all the warm aloft.
The longer range forecast:
We would rocket into the 90'sF again tomorrow if that cool front didn't arrive in the afternoon. I've drawn a green line through the point that temperatures drop, dew points (wiggly horizontal green line), when clouds and a chance of rain returns, and winds pick up and come out of the northeast (Figure 2).
Beyond that, afternoon chances of rain are back and thunderstorms are expected (from this model) on Memorial Day. The SPC (not shown) does not have a chance of even normal thunderstorms over Longmont on Monday. They forecast thunderstorms for Greeley and Firestone etc. but not back on this side of I-25. We'll see.
Looking farther out, we warm up a bit and have afternoon thunderstorms possible almost every day. Alberto (that just formed in the Gulf of Mexico, won't effect the weather here directly, but I'll look into covering it a bit tomorrow if it intensifies.)
