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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 24, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We had nice thunderstorms yesterday!  The marginal risk was justified.  The total precipitation was about 2/3rds of an inch in two waves, but a good area of Colorado from west of town up beyond Ft. Collins picked up 3/4ths to 1.5 inches of rain (Figure 1). I experienced about 20 minutes of pea sized hail during the storms.  Parts of Berthoud had small hail drifts.

Figure 2 is the drought monitor graphic from last week.  We'll watch for changes when they next update this.  Boulder county and most of NE Colorado are not experiencing any drought conditions.  Extreme drought and worse are still found in the southern 1/4th of the state.  Send rain!

Things get very quiet and dry into the weekend (for a change). See the long term for details...

Figure 1: The 1 day precipitation total for north central Colorado from NOAA and esri.

Figure 2: The drought index from last Thursday (prior to more rain) from the U.S. Dept. of Ag.

The long range forecast:

Let's look out over the next 10 days.  Our normal high is still in the lower 70'sF, but we'll be pushing closer and closer to 90F into the weekend before another trough approaches and cools us.  There are VERY low chances of rain until mid-next week (Figure 3). You get a strong dose of mid- to late summer for whatever pool activities you want to get into for the Memorial Day weekend.

The total precipitation for Colorado over the next 5 days (from the GFS too, Figure 4) doesn't give Longmont much of anything. The high mountains may see brief buildups that dump some rain in the afternoons.  Summer time weather!!

Figure 3: The 10 day GFS graphical forecast and precipitation ensemble.

Figure 4: The GFS forecasted accumulated precipitation up to Monday May 28th midday.

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

59°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.9 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
42 °F
Humidity
53%
Wind
NNW 3 mph
Gust
6 mph
Wind Chill
59 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 PM
55°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
51°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
49°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
47°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
45°F
Clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
43°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
41°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
7 AM
45°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
49°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
55°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
62°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Wednesday

75 °F

Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

41 °F

Patchy clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday

75 °F

Turning cloudy, warm; breezy, a thunderstorm around in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Thursday Night

49 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, considerable cloudiness


Thunderstorms

Friday

70 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

46 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Rain

Saturday

50 °F

Chilly with periods of rain


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy with a stray thundershower in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:08 AM
Sunset
7:49 PM

Based on AccuWeather data