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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 13, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The storm is in progress, but there is still a lot to cover... our first thunderstorm of the weekend rolled through after 7pm (see figure 1). There was small hail south of town.  We are under a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday PM (the darker green outline in figure 1). Because of this, I'll post this Saturday PM rather than Sunday AM.

For rainfall totals up to 7am, Figure 2 shows Longmont received about 0.10 inch of rain. Boulder got around 0.2-0.4 inch of rain. Figure 3 shows Ft. Collins received around 0.10 to 0.40 inch of rain. Berthoud got about 0.10 inch of rain. Estes Park only saw a paltry few hundredths of an inch. Figure 4 is the Denver metro which saw a trace to a 0.10 inch of rain. More water fell to the north - as predicted.

Figure 1: Live radar and convective outlook for Saturday PM from My Radar Pro app iOS.

Figure 2: update: the CoCoRaHS precipitation reports for Boulder county by 7am Saturday (the prior 24 hours of accumulation).

Figure 3: update: the CoCoRaHS precipitation reports for Larimaer county by 7am Saturday (the prior 24 hours of accumulation).

Figure 4: update: the CoCoRaHS precipitation reports for Denver Metro by 7am Saturday (the prior 24 hours of accumulation).

The (shorter term) longer range forecast:

Figure 5 shows there is a marginal risk of severe weather - the primary risk is hail and strong straight line winds- for Sunday.  South Denver could see a weak tornado. For now, figure 6 shows we are back to general thunderstorms on Monday (but we'll see if that remains the case or if that gets upped).

Finally- the rainfall through Wednesday morning, according to the GFS in Figure 7 shows an inch to 1.25 inches of rain is likely nearby though we might be in a notch of less rainfall.  The spacial resolution is such that anything from 0.50 inch to 1.25 inchs is possible in your neighborhood.

More tomorrow!

Figure 5: the day 2 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Saturday (valid Sunday).

Figure 6: the day 3 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Saturday (valid Monday).

Figure 7: The total precipitation estimate between Saturday PM and Wednesday noon from the GFS and weather5280.com

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

32°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.98 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
25 °F
Humidity
76%
Wind
W 2.2 mph
Gust
4.3 mph
Wind Chill
32 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 AM
28°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 AM
36°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 AM
42°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
48°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
57°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
62°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
62°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
60°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy with a shower in spots late


Showers

Monday

50 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

31 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data