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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 29, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We did it - well DIA, at least, tied the all time high temperature record of 105F (Figure 1).  Afternoon clouds building up (with virga - rain that evaporates as it falls creating strong down draft winds) cut off our chance to break the record. But it was close.

Today we have a front draped over the northern tier of counties and another afternoon chance of just a few normally strong thunderstorms (Figure 2). Smoke from Utah and local fires will make the skies milky (Figure 3) as the next trough moves in to cool us down and create a better chance of storms this weekend (Figure 4).

Figure 1: The now 5 times the high temperature in Denver was 105F - tweeted by the NWS.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Friday afternoon. From NCEP.

Figure 3: The HRRR model forecast for smoke at all levels for Friday afternoon. From NOAA.gov

Figure 4: The 500mb upper air analysis for Friday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

Amazingly this next front and trough will drop us to the lower 70'sF on Saturday with a midday to evening chance of rain (mainly up slope fueled showers and thunderstorms). This model gives us a whopping 1/4th of an inch.  We'll look at other models tomorrow.   Unfortunately, by Monday, we're back to the lower 90'sF for the Independence Day week.

Note- I will be camping the first two weeks of July.  Due to the need of a vacation, and limited bandwidth,  these forecast discussions will be more text based and, maybe, not quite as comprehensive.  (This column has been going for more than a year now!!).

Figure 5: the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

50°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.9 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
45 °F
Humidity
83%
Wind
NNW 1.1 mph
Gust
3.7 mph
Wind Chill
50 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 AM
51°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 AM
51°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 AM
59°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
71°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
75°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
75°F
Thunderstorms
Today
3 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
72°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday

77 °F

Turning cloudy, warm; breezy, a stray thunderstorm this afternoon


Thunderstorms

Thursday Night

47 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, considerable cloudiness


Thunderstorms

Friday

69 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Rain

Saturday

46 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
7:50 PM

Based on AccuWeather data