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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 11, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

With a cool front that pushed across the state Sunday PM, we are very quiet and dry today. Temperatures are down about 12 F from Sunday (Sunday hit 99F in Longmont and 97F in Denver).

Figure 1 shows the bone dry, post-frontal state with no notable weather occurring as it scours moisture out of Colorado and cools the lower atmosphere (more stable). There was A LOT of smoke aloft over Longmont Sunday morning, but Figure 2 shows the front has pushed all the smoke way off into Kansas an deep south Colorado where the closest major fire is still burning.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for this afternoon. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The HRRR model forecast for smoke at all levels for midday Monday. From NOAA.gov

The longer range forecast:

We drop to the lower 80'sF (no matter what Figure 3 says) then warm back up the the 90'sF over the next couple of days.  A VERY low chance of afternoon thunderstorms return, when a bit of monsoon-like moisture returns, and heat helps trigger them starting Tuesday PM.  Real cooling and rain chances seem to return come next weekend.  More later!

Figure 3: the total 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

66°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.61 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
38 °F
Humidity
35%
Wind
NE 5.7 mph
Gust
12.1 mph
Wind Chill
66 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
65°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
58°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
55°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
52°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
44°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

69 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

41 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

44 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data