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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – July 31st, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We continue with a quiet and seasonally normal (if not a bit cooler) week. Figure 1 shows the dry air in place over most of Colorado behind the Sunday cold front. Figure 2 for this afternoon shows that cold front down into Mexico and southern Texas today. What a front!

Because of the flow of cool stable air at the surface, we have no chance of convection (thunderstorms) in northern Colorado today (Figure 3).

For tomorrow (Figure 4) some heating and moisture returns and we have a small chance of thunderstorms returning for the afternoon.

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image from Monday afternoon. Reds/Oranges are dry air, greys/whites are moist air regions.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Tuesday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: the day 2 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Monday (valid Tuesday).

Figure 3: the day 3 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Monday (valid Wednesday).

Forecast Discussion:

We slowly warm to the lower 90's F (just a touch above normal) for the weekend. There don't seem to be any big precipitation events in the next 10 days. Random afternoon thunderstorms may give some locations like southern and southwestern Colorado (where it is needed the most) some nice rain. This run of the GFS (Figure 5) doesn't give Longmont anything in the next 10 days, but that is not to be completely believed.

Figure 5: The accumulated precipitation for the 10 days following Monday afternoon from the GFS model and weather5280.com

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

39°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.2 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
31 °F
Humidity
71%
Wind
SSE 1.6 mph
Gust
3.8 mph
Wind Chill
39 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 AM
39°F
Showers
Today
4 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
38°F
Partly cloudy
Today
6 AM
37°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 AM
39°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 AM
42°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
45°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
49°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
55°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
59°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
61°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Friday

76 °F

Some sun, then increasing clouds, becoming breezy in the afternoon with a shower in spots late


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Friday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy with a couple of showers


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partly sunny and not as warm


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

40 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy late


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Very windy; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

62 °F

Windy with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:57 AM
Sunset
7:58 PM

Based on AccuWeather data