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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 30th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The switch isn't starting yet, the ridge still holds strong and we'll see the 90'sF again today. There is a ridge overhead and a surface high in Colorado (Figure 1).  There is a bit of a low forming near the Oklahoma panhandle and a bit of mid to upper atmospheric moisture coming in (green arrows in Figure 2) but the lower levels will remain very dry. There might be dry, gusty thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Smoke, for the first time in weeks, is absent from the entire state (Figure 3). Hurray!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: the water vapor satellite image from Wednesday afternoon. Reds/Oranges are dry air, greys/whites are moist air regions.

Figure 3: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Thursday midday.

The longer range forecast:

We have another day of heat tomorrow before the slow decline in temperatures begins.  There are rain chances out there, but they are either not too great (as explained above, they are overdone for today) or too far out to get excited about (Figure 4).  Hold on, we'll get rain and cool weather.  It will come.

Figure 4: the GFS temperature and ensemble precipitation meteogram forecast for the next 10 days from weather5280.com

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

51°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.96 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
34 °F
Humidity
51%
Wind
NW 2.7 mph
Gust
6.1 mph
Wind Chill
51 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 AM
48°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
51°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
57°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
62°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
66°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
70°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
72°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
75°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
77°F
Mostly sunny
Today
3 PM
79°F
Mostly sunny
Today
4 PM
77°F
Mostly sunny
Today
5 PM
74°F
Partly sunny w/ t-storms

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

79 °F

Mostly sunny and not as warm, becoming breezy with a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday Night

49 °F

A thunderstorm in spots early this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Sunday

83 °F

Sunshine and patchy clouds; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

51 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Monday

70 °F

Cooler with times of sun and clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

46 °F

Cloudy; evening thundershowers followed by a couple of showers late


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

70 °F

Pleasant and warmer with intervals of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:13 PM

Based on AccuWeather data