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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 2nd, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We keep on enjoying the quiet weather this week. Things do keep warming to the lower 90's F over the next couple of days. We are dominated by a high pressure system at the surface today (Figure 1). There is moisture available for afternoon storms up in the mountains and out on the plains, but the storms will be widely scattered (Figure 2).

Notably, the giant fires in California are sending smoke our way. Figure 3 is the forecast for smoke this morning and it is pretty thick. By later tonight, we are still in pretty thick smoke, but the plume has shifted to the east somewhat (Figure 4).

Our chance of afternoon thunderstorms is non-severe and covers the entire state (Figure 5).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday midday. From NCEP.

Figure 2: the water vapor satellite image from Wednesday afternoon. Reds/Oranges are dry air, greys/whites are moist air regions. Green arrows show moisture flow.

Figure 3: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Thursday AM.

Figure 3: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Thursday midnight into Friday.

Figure 4: the day 2 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Wednesday (valid Thursday).

The longer range forecast:

It warms a bit Friday, and there continues to be a chance of afternoon storms (non-severe still) state wide (Figure 6). Saturday through next Friday, highs will be within a degree or two of 90°F.

Figure 5: the day 2 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Wednesday (valid Friday).

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

50°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.73 Steady
Visibility
4 miles
Dewpoint
43 °F
Humidity
78%
Wind
N 7.4 mph
Gust
17 mph
Wind Chill
47 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
49°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
46°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
3 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
48°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
9 AM
51°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Monday

70 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

44 °F

Cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots


Thunderstorms

Tuesday

62 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler; a couple of afternoon showers and a thunderstorm


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

35 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

72 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Thursday

82 °F

Warmer with partial sunshine


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

41 °F

Mostly cloudy


Showers

Friday

62 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a couple of showers


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

42 °F

Turning out clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:40 AM
Sunset
8:15 PM

Based on AccuWeather data