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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 27th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

There isn't much happening this week except for the arrival of a stout, but dry, cold front on Monday. When it has passed, we warm back up to near 90°F. That is the week in a nutshell. But for some specifics:

Figure 1 shows the trough to our west that will cool us down to the 70's F on Tuesday. It is also bringing in clean air from the southwest for a day (more later on that). This afternoon, the front is just passing Longmont with some gusty north, then northeast winds - Figure 2. By tomorrow (Tuesday) AM, the front is in the southern counties of the state and we are windy and, relatively, chilly (Figure 3). There is a SMALL chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening behind the front, but I'm not excited about them.

By Wednesday AM, the trough is fading out to the east and the ridge is growing again in the West (Figure 4). We climb to the upper 80'sF on Wednesday and top 90° F on Thursday.

As for smoke, Figure 5 shows the early Monday AM lack of smoke around Longmont, which is replaced by a (relatively thin) ribbon of smoke passing just to our north (Figure 6). It won't be choking thick here, but it will go back to being hazy.

The longer range forecast:

We return to the 90's F into the weekend and stay mostly dry. Eventually we'll have some fun weather to discuss, be patient. We are only a couple of weeks from the earliest recorded measurable snow at DIA and about 2 months away from the average first snow.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday AM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Monday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: The forecast surface map for Tuesday AM. From NCEP.

Figure 4: The forecast surface map for Wednesday AM. From NCEP.

Figure 5: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Sunday PM.

Figure 6: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Monday noon.

Current Weather

Light snow

Light snow

35°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.26 Rising
Visibility
2 miles
Dewpoint
29 °F
Humidity
79%
Wind
ENE 1.6 mph
Gust
4.5 mph
Wind Chill
35 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
36°F
Showers
Today
9 PM
37°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
38°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
38°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
38°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
37°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
36°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
35°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
35°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
34°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
35°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Thursday

38 °F

Cloudy and much colder; snow showers this morning, accumulating a coating to an inch followed by brief showers this afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

34 °F

An evening shower in spots; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Friday

47 °F

Chilly with some sun, then turning cloudy; a little rain in the afternoon


Rain and snow

Friday Night

33 °F

Periods of snow; rain mixed in early, accumulating an inch or two


Flurries

Saturday

43 °F

A bit of morning snow with little or no accumulation; otherwise, cloudy and chilly; storm total snowfall an inch or two


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

31 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

69 °F

Pleasant and warmer with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday

79 °F

Very warm with a blend of sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

36 °F

Increasing clouds


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
7:43 PM

Based on AccuWeather data