This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.
Forecast Discussion:
The upper level ridge is taking over again. We'll see dry weather, above normal temperatures, and smoke, for many days to come.
The surface map (Figure 1) shows us high and dry with a surface high pressure in place along with the upper level ridge. Together, those give us the heat and suppress the afternoon thunderstorms.
As mentioned yesterday, the west and northwest flow setting up will bring the smoke back from the western fires. Figure 2 shows it sliding down over northern Colorado last night. Figure 3 is for this morning and the smoke sinks further south into the state. Figure 3 has dense smoke around the area by noon today (with some clearing on the western slopes of Colorado). Thick smoke can shave a few degrees off the high temperature...sometimes.
The longer range forecast:
The GFS meteogram (Figure 5) shows the very small rain chances that only show up in a few runs of the model now and then. I've drawn 80° F as yellow, 85° F as orange, and 90° F as red. Each day hovers in the 85-90° F high temperature range for the next 10 days. Our 'relief storm' possible next week is looking less and less likely.
