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Forecast Discussion:
As i write, there are some thunderstorms out on the eastern Plains, but only light showers and weak storms in the foothills (even though we are still under a marginal risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) of severe weather). The moisture is increasing, flowing in from the south and southwest (Figure 1).
The next upper level short wave trough is racing towards us today (Saturday) and is entering the state this morning (Figure 2). We expect more widespread storms and showers across the state this afternoon (Figure 3).
The SPC has painted us with a marginal risk of severe weather (hail, high winds, and locally flooding rains -and an isolate tornado is not out of the question today as well). The SPC is thinking about the need for a slight risk for parts of Colorado today (2 on a scale of 1-5). I'll update this post if that happens. (Figure 4)
Figure 5 shows that cleaner air is flowing in with this southern air. Hopefully we'll breath easier later today into Sunday.
The longer range forecast:
The trough passes Sunday and pushes a stout cold front down with it (Figure 6). After a wet Saturday in most locations, we still have lingering showers (green circle in Figure 7) through Sunday afternoon. Overall, we experience a notable cool period from Saturday to Tuesday (blue circle in Figure 7). After that, upper 80'sF return with afternoon storms always possible.
