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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 10th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

And we get drier, and drier, and drier. Figure 1 is the satellite image showing atmospheric moisture. There is good moisture down south but it is not expected up here until middle next week (maybe).

We do have a bit of smoke from the western fires (Figure 2). The upper level ridge overhead is keeping the smoke out in the Pacific Northwest. I feel bad for them, and California.

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image from Thursday night. Reds/Oranges are dry air, greys/whites are moist air regions.

Figure 2: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Friday noon.

The longer range forecast:

The ridge that has warmed us up and dried us out is still here through Saturday, good and strong (blue line over Colorado - Figure 3).

The ridge is still here on Tuesday, but a trough in the west (red line on the West Coast in Figure 4) may start to bring moisture in by Tuesday. Figure 5 is rainfall through the next five days - there is virtually no precipitation except down in the drought zone (yea!).

Figure 6 shows temperatures remaining right around 90° F for the next 5 days, then that western trough brings a hint of a cool down and more moisture. That IS a long way out though. You'll have to come back for more weather another day!

Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Saturday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Tuesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 5: The total accumulated precipitation between Thursday PM and Monday night (5 days out) from the GFS and weather5280.com

Figure 6: the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

50°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.76 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
39%
Wind
SSW 2.7 mph
Gust
5.4 mph
Wind Chill
50 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 AM
46°F
Showers
Today
1 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Today
2 AM
42°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data