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The Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory –March 21-23, 2020

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The snow departs and we enter an extended mild period of quiet weather. There is a chance of some rain/snow Wednesday PM into Thursday. That's all I have to say about that.

Forecast Discussion:

Let's start with the main storm snow totals. Figure 1 shows Longmont received about 4-5.5 inches. Boudler received an impressive 5-10 inches and the mountains above pushed 20 inches. I forecasted 3-5 here and 4-8 later over on Next Door. This was a healthy hit of snow (with almost 1.5 inches of moisture!).

A slow moving frontal boundary will now drift east as warmer air returns Saturday (Figure 2). We have a local bit of ridging in the upper air pattern while the complex troughiness remains way out west off the coast (Figure 3). There is a lot less energy in that setup currently.

The Longer Range forecast:

We hover between about 50F and 60F for the next 10 days. A somewhat organized low ejects Wednesday night across the state bringing us some rain/snow chances mid-week (Figure 4). Snowfall is confined to the mountains and higher elevations over the next 5 days (Figure 5).

Figure 1 : 24 hour snowfall reports through 7am Friday in Boulder Co. from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Saturday PM from NCEP.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 5: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Friday AM.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

35°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.27 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
32 °F
Humidity
89%
Wind
E 1.1 mph
Gust
3.3 mph
Wind Chill
35 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
34°F
Showers
Tomorrow
2 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
34°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
34°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
35°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
9 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
10 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
11 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Thursday

37 °F

Cloudy and much colder; snow showers this morning, accumulating a coating to an inch followed by brief showers this afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

34 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Friday

47 °F

Chilly with some sun, then turning cloudy; a little rain in the afternoon


Rain and snow

Friday Night

33 °F

Periods of snow; rain mixed in early, accumulating an inch or two


Flurries

Saturday

43 °F

A bit of morning snow with little or no accumulation; otherwise, cloudy and chilly; storm total snowfall an inch or two


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

31 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

69 °F

Pleasant and warmer with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday

79 °F

Very warm with a blend of sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

36 °F

Increasing clouds


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
7:43 PM

Based on AccuWeather data