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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 31, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

A spooky forecast discussion:

A bit of freezing drizzle was reported in spots around Longmont this morning, but the real impact was felt in Denver, the mountains west of Denver, and up in Fort Collins. I could count the frozen droplets on our van.  Not too impressive.

The second low, though, is tracking a bit further north than expected (Figure 1).  The northern mountains and areas along I-25 including Longmont might get a bit more snow.  The NWS predicts a dusting to 1/2" for us while the GFS (Figure 2) has a coating to an inch.  There is 4 inches of snow in the mountains just to our west. Figure 3 is the NNM forecast that has maybe a bit more snow at 1/2" to 2".

For the Halloween night forecast:

6pm: We are at 49F with 43% relative humidity, winds from the south at 4mph. with 33% cloud cover (from wunderground.com).

9pm: We are at 41F with 59% relative humidity, winds from the south southwest at 4mph. with 39% cloud cover (from wunderground.com).

Figure 4 and 5 are sky condition forecasts (for those who want to look through the Cherrywood Observatory telescope at the corner of Cherrywood Dr. and Cherrywood Way).

Figure 4 is from http://www.cleardarksky.com/ and predicts very clear skies during Halloween night.

Figure 5 is from http://202.127.24.18/ and has mostly cloudy skies clearing to 1/2 cloudy later in the evening.

Figure 1: The Monday PM surface analysis from the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The GFS total snowfall depth up to Tuesday morning from tropicaltidbits.

Figure 3 The NMM total snowfall depth up to Tuesday morning from tropicaltidbits.

Figure 4: The Clear Sky Chart forecast of sky conditions for the next couple of days.

Figure 5: The 7Timer! forecast of sky conditions for the next couple of days.

In the longer range:

We still go to very seasonable and boring weather right away mid-week and into the weekend.  Then another cold storm approaches for the start of next week.  Details later!

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

64°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
29.82 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
48 °F
Humidity
56%
Wind
NE 2.2 mph
Gust
4.9 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
73°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
76°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
70°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
65°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
62°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
59°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
55°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

77 °F

Turning cloudy; warm


Thunderstorms

Thursday Night

47 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, considerable cloudiness


Thunderstorms

Friday

70 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

43 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Rain

Saturday

46 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
7:50 PM

Based on AccuWeather data