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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 4, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The westerlies made progress pushing the frontal air off to the east on Friday. Figure 1 shows the green and light blue (cooler air) now sitting over eastern Colorado and Kansas.  A darker blue tongue of warmer air has formed up the I-25 corridor on the right side of the stationary front drawn in.  We have two jet stream flows combining overhead bringing in a steady source of (limited at first) moisture and wind energy to the western side of the Rockies (Figure 2).  Down slope winds will pick up on Saturday to warm us up and blow things around.

That westerly flow will mean snow for the western slopes and higher elevations.  Figure 3 for Sunday morning shows a good amount of mountain snow west of us and a front that has pushed down into NE Colorado Saturday night.  Winds will die down again tonight and low clouds and drizzle will return again.

Figure 1: Infrared satellite image and surface analysis from NOAA Friday PM.

Figure 2: The 500mb upper air forecast map for Sunday morning.

Figure 3: The surface forecast map for Sunday morning.

In the longer range forecast:

The Saturday PM and Sunday front won't mean much rain for us, but another system coming in Tuesday may still give Longmont some snow. Figure 4 shows the total accumulation of snow up through Monday night.  There are 13 and 15 inch snow amounts in the higher mountains, but nothing here in town.  In Figure 5 we add on the time periods through Wednesday morning. It looks like we might see 2-3 inches by this model run.  More later!

Figure 4: Total snow accumulation according to the GPS from Friday PM to Monday PM.

Figure 5: Total snow accumulation according to the GPS from Friday PM to Wednesday AM.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

60°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.11 Rising
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
35 °F
Humidity
39%
Wind
E 2.8 mph
Gust
6.7 mph
Wind Chill
60 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 PM
54°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
52°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
10 PM
50°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
42°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Tuesday

63 °F

Turning cloudy and cooler


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

40 °F

An evening thundershower; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

76 °F

Pleasant and warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

42 °F

Patchy clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday

73 °F

Becoming cloudy; breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots


Cloudy

Thursday Night

48 °F

Considerable cloudiness


Showers

Friday

69 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

46 °F

Cloudy; thundershowers in the evening followed by periods of rain late


Showers

Saturday

53 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a couple of showers


Showers

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with occasional rain and drizzle late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:10 AM
Sunset
7:48 PM

Based on AccuWeather data