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In Brief:
After a chance of a late evening splash of rain and maybe a rumble of thunder, we remain mostly dry for the next 10 days with above normal temperatures (but not really hot either). Quiet is the word of the day.
Forecast Discussion:
The upper air map shows a big trough to the west, but dry air dominates the state (Figure 1). A pinch in the isopleths (black lines) show a wind speed maximum approaching tonight (yellow oval). That "jet streak" acts like a vacuum cleaner and lifts the air a bit. Some showers are possible zipping across the northern parts of the state tonight. The HRRR is unimpressed by rainfall amounts (Figure 2) while the weatherunderground model gives us 0.05 inch (Figure 4).
We dry out Sunday and stay just at normal temperatures for a day as the trough pulls by (Figure 4).
The Longer Range Forecast:
The cut-off low that was going to dump lots of water and snow on the state next week has a different plan. The GFS now shows it digging far south into northern Mexico (Figure 3). That feature won't matter much to our weather story now.
The week ahead will be about 5-10F above average as temperatures go with some better heat next weekend as another west coast trough pumps southwest winds across the state (Figure 5). I've highlighted days at or above 80F in Figure 4. There isn't much exciting going on. Sorry!
Happy First Day of Fall Monday! The Autumnal Equinox officially arrives at 1:50 p.m. MDT
