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In Brief:
Another dry front sweeps down the Front Range this afternoon/evening cooling us further for Sunday to having a high almost limited to the upper 50'sF. We warm through Tuesday to almost 80'F then a strong cold front blasts in bringing rain and (still looking true) an inch or so of snow Wed/Thur.
3:30pm 10/6 Update:
It won't feel like snow when it nearly hits 80F Tuesday and Wednesday (pre-front) - but we should spend almost 30 hours below freezing Thursday AM to Friday midday (Figure 1 update). The weatherunderground.com model gives us 2-3 inches of snow. The GFS seems to give us 3-5 inches (Figure 2 update). Warm ground temperatures will limit snow building to that depth in most places except for the lawn you are probably still watering. (I'm still skepticle that THIS much snow will fall, but note the southwest-northeast streaks in the snow pattern: there will be banding that can drop a lot more snow locally than the region receives as a whole.
(Not shown) the GEM model give us 2.5-3.5 inches of snow. Accuweather gives us a "bit" of snow, but a low Friday AM of 13F. Weatherunderground.com chills us to 16F Friday AM. Be Prepared! (Lion King quote.)
End 3:30pm 10/6 Update.
Forecast Discussion:
We are high and dry with cool air in place. A wind shift (a front-like entity) will sweep down the plains this evening - with no rain. We should drop to below freezing briefly Sunday AM (Figure 1 and 2). Dry nice weather is here through Tuesday when we warm almost to 80F.
The Longer Range Forecast:
Everyone's eyes are on the big storm coming in Wednesday afternoon (Figure 2). This is still looking to bring our first snow to Longmont for the season. The approaching trough is deep and strong (Figure 3). The weatherunderground model gives us about 1-1.5 inch of snow Wednesday PM through early Friday AM. The GFS has increased snow in the mountains and around Longmont and even out on the Plains giving us between 0.1-1 inch of snow (Figure 4). Figure 5 shows Estes Park getting about 3-4 inches of snow out of this system, at this time. More on this all week!
(Are your sprinklers blown out yet? Lows in the 20'sF Wednesday and Friday mornings and lows in the teens Thursday morning are expected!)
