In Brief:

Very nice mild weather weather is the story for this upcoming week. A trough will pass Tuesday and kick up some winds and cool us down, but we recover to the 70’sF until the weekend. A chance of rain (and snow?) return at the start of next week.

Update 10/13 3pm:

It is too beautiful out there to stay inside at the computer long, but the snow for Sunday/Monday 10/20-21 is looking like it might be a bigger deal. This is your heads up for next weekend.

Figure 1 update: The forecast snowfall totals for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Saturday morning.

End update 10/13 3pm.

Forecast Discussion:

The cold front continues plow across the nation this weekend as we begin our warm-up. Dry and warmer conditions is the simple story for this long weekend (Figure 1). We’ll even see 70’sF Monday (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

A passing upper level trough cools us about 10 degrees Tuesday with a windy morning (not shown). Little precipitation is expected. We bounce back to the 70’sF for the rest of the week (Figure 2). This warmth is created by a ridge as it drifts over the state (Figure 3). There is indication of a return of cool wet weather next Sunday (Figure 2) with snow up in the mountains (some runs give us a bit of snow as well – Figure 4).

Figure 1: the surface temperature anomaly (departure from normal) from the GFS for Saturdamorning from weather5280.com.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: The forecast snowfall totals for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Saturday morning.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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