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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 14, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Today is a normal day. Mostly clear skies with temperatures within a degree or so of normal will greet you outside your front door. Nice! High pressure at the surface, a bit of down-slope flow (Figure 1) and a ridge aloft (Figure 3) are responsible for this normal-ness.

With big fires fanned by the dense blobs of cold air/high pressure in the center of the nation, out on the West Coast, I thought we should keep an eye on atmospheric smoke again. Figure 2 shows a bit of smoke leaking over the top of the western ridge into the Dakotas, but nothing has made it here, quite yet.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The 26 hour forecast for smoke at all levels from the HRRR model valid Wednesday mid-morning.

Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

A check on the Friday PM and Saturday day snow storm (Figure 4) shows snow totals backing off according to the GFS. Now we are only in the trace to 1 inch zone. We'll have to keep an eye on it. (Note the NAM is still giving us 2-3 inches for this weekend, so it is not definite that this is going to fade out.) In the meantime, daytime temperatures will melt most of the snow away this week.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 5 days, through Sunday PM. Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Current Weather

Snow

Snow

31°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.32 Rising
Visibility
1 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
94%
Wind
NE 1.1 mph
Gust
2.2 mph
Wind Chill
31 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
30°F
Flurries
Today
9 AM
32°F
Flurries
Today
10 AM
33°F
Cloudy
Today
11 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Today
12 PM
35°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
37°F
Cloudy
Today
2 PM
38°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
40°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
39°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
39°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
38°F
Rain and snow
Today
7 PM
37°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Saturday

40 °F

Cloudy and cold; a bit of morning snow followed by a rain or snow shower in spots this afternoon; storm total 1-3"; roads could be slippery


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

32 °F

An evening rain or snow shower in spots; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

63 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Monday

79 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

66 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

79 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:14 AM
Sunset
7:45 PM

Based on AccuWeather data