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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 12, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Our storm has roared eastward leaving very cold air in its wake (Figure 1). Monday we saw temperatures about 25°F below normal. Today we'll only be about 7 degrees below normal. Tomorrow we are back to normal (mid 50's F for a high).

For tonight, the trough of our past storm is deep down into Texas and a ridge is building in quickly form the west. That will also decrease the terrible fire-blasting winds in California (Figure 2).

Figure 1: The current surface map from Monday p.m. and the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday a.m. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

If you look back a day, you'll see that next Saturday was just a cool blip on the radar. Today, a more major storm is in the offing (Figure 3). This seems to give us 2-4 inches of snow on the weatherunderground model. Taking a look at the storm totals from the GSF through Sunday p.m. (Figure 4); we are in the 2-3" zone on that model (but this is still many days off). We'll keep an eye on it!

Figure 3: the piece of the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 6 days, through Sunday p.m. Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

57°F

UV Index
9 Very High
Pressure
29.77 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
18 °F
Humidity
21%
Wind
WNW 6.8 mph
Gust
14.3 mph
Wind Chill
57 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 PM
59°F
Showers
Today
2 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
56°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
50°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Wednesday

60 °F

A shower in spots this morning; otherwise, turning cloudy and cool


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Partly to mostly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Thursday

53 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; cooler


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

41 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

57 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday Night

43 °F

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

64 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

44 °F

A thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, becoming clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:51 AM
Sunset
8:03 PM

Based on AccuWeather data