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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 12-14, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We spend the next (almost) 5 days a bit warmer than normal and mostly dry (with a few cloudy days). A front arrives Saturday for a chance of rain (snow?) and another front does the same next Tuesday. We'll watch those for signs of further development this week.

Forecast Discussion:

The forecast for last nights storm came out well. A pretty notable layer of ice got laid down before 1-3 inches of snow fell across Longmont (Figure 1). Boulder did better (like normal) with 2-4 inches. Our storm has blasted all the way down to Texas giving us clear skies and warming temperatures as the western ridge returns Tuesday (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

That's the story through Saturday - a bit warmer than normal and dry. There is a hint of a Saturday cold front with rain/snow and another front on Tuesday for more rain/snow (Figure 3). It's sort of boring again, so let's look at the last long range forecast (as promised) and the next even longer range forecast...

The Ultra Long Range Forecast:

At the start of October, the NOAA outlook was for above normal temperatures here (Figure 4). What happened was nearly the opposite (Figure 5). The NOAA precipitation forecast was somewhat spotty and was for normal amounts around Colorado (Figure 6). What occurred was near normal precipitation around here (but most of it came as snow, which was above normal) (Figure 7). The NOAA forecast busted as far as temperature trends went.

The NOAA forecast for November-January is for above normal temperatures (Figure 8). Weatherbell has an outlook that gives us near normal temperatures and massive cold in the upper Midwest (Figure 9). Weatherbell did much better for October (not shown).

As precipitation goes, NOAA has us wetter than normal (Figure 10) while Weatherbell paints us as near normal (snowfall-wise Figure 11). I might lean towards Weatherbell personally with the record of October to look back on - very close to normal snowfall and temperatures for the rest of the winter.

Figure 1: 24 hour snowfall reports through 7am Monday in Boulder Co. from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 2: The current surface analysis map from the Weather Channel Monday night.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The temperature outlook for October 2019 made in the end of September and posted in this column from NOAA.
Figure 5: The actual temperature anomaly that occurred October 2019 from NOAA/NCEI Climate Division.
Figure 6: The precipitation outlook for October 2019 made in the end of September and posted in this column from NOAA.
Figure 7: The actual precipitation anomaly that occurred October 2019 from NOAA/NCEI Climate Division.
Figure 8: The temperature outlook for Nov 2019 to Jan 2020 made in the end of October from NOAA.
Figure 9: The Nov 2019-March 2020 temperature forecast from WeatherBell screen capture from their free online video.
Figure 10: The temperature outlook for Nov 2019 to Jan 2020 made in the end of October from NOAA.
Figure 11: The Nov 2019-March 2020 snowfall forecast from WeatherBell screen capture from their free online video.

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

30°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.12 Steady
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
23 °F
Humidity
74%
Wind
W 2.2 mph
Gust
3.7 mph
Wind Chill
30 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 AM
33°F
Clear
Today
5 AM
31°F
Clear
Today
6 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Today
7 AM
29°F
Clear
Today
8 AM
33°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
40°F
Sunny
Today
10 AM
47°F
Sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Sunny
Today
12 PM
58°F
Sunny
Today
1 PM
62°F
Sunny
Today
2 PM
63°F
Sunny
Today
3 PM
64°F
Sunny

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Monday

60 °F

Milder with sunshine; the start of a stretch of dry and mild weather


Clear

Monday Night

29 °F

Clear


Sunny

Tuesday

66 °F

Sunshine


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

31 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

63 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

31 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

69 °F

Sun and areas of high clouds and mild


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

61 °F

Becoming cloudy with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Friday Night

32 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
7:11 PM

Based on AccuWeather data