We spend the next (almost) 5 days a bit warmer than normal and mostly dry (with a few cloudy days). A front arrives Saturday for a chance of rain (snow?) and another front does the same next Tuesday. We’ll watch those for signs of further development this week.
The forecast for last nights storm came out well. A pretty notable layer of ice got laid down before 1-3 inches of snow fell across Longmont (Figure 1). Boulder did better (like normal) with 2-4 inches. Our storm has blasted all the way down to Texas giving us clear skies and warming temperatures as the western ridge returns Tuesday (Figure 2).
The Longer Range Forecast:
That’s the story through Saturday – a bit warmer than normal and dry. There is a hint of a Saturday cold front with rain/snow and another front on Tuesday for more rain/snow (Figure 3). It’s sort of boring again, so let’s look at the last long range forecast (as promised) and the next even longer range forecast…
The Ultra Long Range Forecast:
At the start of October, the NOAA outlook was for above normal temperatures here (Figure 4). What happened was nearly the opposite (Figure 5). The NOAA precipitation forecast was somewhat spotty and was for normal amounts around Colorado (Figure 6). What occurred was near normal precipitation around here (but most of it came as snow, which was above normal) (Figure 7). The NOAA forecast busted as far as temperature trends went.
The NOAA forecast for November-January is for above normal temperatures (Figure 8). Weatherbell has an outlook that gives us near normal temperatures and massive cold in the upper Midwest (Figure 9). Weatherbell did much better for October (not shown).
As precipitation goes, NOAA has us wetter than normal (Figure 10) while Weatherbell paints us as near normal (snowfall-wise Figure 11). I might lean towards Weatherbell personally with the record of October to look back on – very close to normal snowfall and temperatures for the rest of the winter.