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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – Nov 6-7, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Cool but dry weather is the story for Tuesday night and Wednesday day. A front comes through (dry) in the afternoon with wind and cooling temperatures. Clouds move in later in the afternoon followed by drizzle and then freezing drizzle overnight. Precipitation (with maybe a few flurries later in the night) comes to an end before dawn. Bridges and driveways and shaded spots might get pretty slick by morning Thursday. Drive safely before the sun warms things enough to melt that glaze. We stay cool and dry until another front might do this again Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Forecast Discussion:

A dry and not too cold cool front will blow things around Wednesday afternoon (Figure 1). Clouds will begin to increase a few hours later with light drizzle beginning in the evening. As temperatures drop below freezing, it will change to freezing drizzle (Figure 2 and 3). We only drop to the mid 20'sF Thursday morning. This isn't super cold. Bridges and cool roadway surfaces might be very slick for the Thursday morning commute. The sun will be out again by late morning Thursday and melt most of those spots. The total snowfall and rainfall over the next five days is below the minimal shaded threshold (Figure 4 and 5). This won't make much of a water impact.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We slowly warm until another front slides over Sunday afternoon. Will we get snow, or freezing drizzle Monday morning? We'll watch it all week.

I'm in Leesburg, VA for my annual work meeting - but I am watching Colorado from here!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Thursday AM from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4 : The forecast snowfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.
Figure 5 : The forecast rainfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

59°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.8 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
39 °F
Humidity
47%
Wind
NNW 7.7 mph
Gust
16.3 mph
Wind Chill
59 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 PM
62°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
57°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
7 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
53°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
51°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
49°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
44°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
43°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

68 °F

Times of sun and clouds; a shower in spots this morning followed by a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

35 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

63 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

39 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

64 °F

Some sun; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Rather cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

43 °F

Rather cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:59 AM
Sunset
7:56 PM

Based on AccuWeather data