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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory - May 3, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We are dry and getting a bit warmer each day through Monday. A few clouds, light breezes, and sunny skies will mark the weekend. Starting Tuesday, we cool down about 20°F (still not seeing freezing temperatures at night) and an extended wet period begins - with snow chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast Discussion:

We just keep getting nicer weather through Monday. Winds will remain light and clouds becoming a bit more numerous later in the weekend. We have high pressure settling in today (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

Things change Tuesday with a rapid return of moisture/rainfall (Figure 2) and an about 20°F drop in temperature. Over the next 10 days, the GFS now shows us receiving only about 1/4-1/2 inch of rain (much lower than yesterday's run) Figure 3. Note the bulls eye of heavy rainfall/water has completely vanished to our northeast and is now confined to the mountains to our west and southwest in the latest run. We are still very far out from this event.

As for snowfall, the GFS gave us a coating in last night's run, but today keeps snow up in the mountains and foothills (not shown). The GEM gives us 2-3 inches of snow over the next 10 days (Figure 4).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Friday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 10 days.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

50°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.76 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
25 °F
Humidity
38%
Wind
SW 2.7 mph
Gust
5.9 mph
Wind Chill
50 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Showers
Tomorrow
1 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
42°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
7 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
8 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
9 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
10 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
11 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data