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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 23, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

With another piece of the storm passing over Colorado - an elevated chance of cold showers will continue Wednesday PM to Thursday PM. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix in the dark-time hours. The weekend looks pretty nice with seasonally warm temperatures and only a chance of afternoon showers. Some rain and cool weather returns starting Monday night (Memorial Day).

Forecast Discussion:

There is a lot of abnormally cold air stretched from southern California up to northern Minnesota (Figure 1). This region of depressed temperatures mirror the center of a double-lobed low pressure aloft dominating the West (Figure 2). As the second lobe rotates through, we will see rain chances pick up some - but only a 1/10th to maybe 1/4th inch of new water is expected (Figure 3). It might be cold enough Thursday morning and later Thursday night for snow to mix in with the rain over Longmont. It just won't end.

The Longer Range Forecast:

The ongoing showers taper off by the early pre-dawn hours Friday. We climb to 70F for Friday and the mid 70'sF by Sunday. Just afternoon thundershowers drifting off the high country are the main threat to picnics and sporting events (Figure 4). The BolderBoulder may see some drizzle and spotty rain. The better chance of thunderstorms and rain do hold off until later in the day. At the start of the race, the temperatures should be about 51F with partly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain.

Things do look wet and cool Monday through Wednesday morning.

Figure 1: the 'current' surface temperature departure from normal for the U.S. from Wednesday afternoon.
Figure 2: The current 500mb upper air analysis for Wednesday afternoon Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: The forecast surface map for Thursday night from NCEP.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Rain

Rain

46°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.82 Rising
Visibility
4 miles
Dewpoint
44 °F
Humidity
90%
Wind
NW 2.9 mph
Gust
6.2 mph
Wind Chill
45 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
45°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
45°F
Rain
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
7 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
8 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
9 AM
42°F
Rain
Tomorrow
10 AM
41°F
Rain

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

69 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

41 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

44 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data