In Brief:

The heavy storms have moved out. The cool down has begun. Repeated cool fronts will keep us chilly (50’sF and 60’sF for highs ) this weekend and next week. Rain chances are small through the rest of the weekend but pick up again Sunday night with another cool front. Monday into Tuesday looks like a very wet period with over an inch of rainfall. Tuesday AM has the best chance for snow near I-25 locations.

Forecast Discussion:

If there are some storm reports in the morning (hail, damaging winds, or tornadoes), I’ll update this site. There are fronts and low pressure systems wandering around the state this weekend (Figure 1). We have a cool weekend ahead with some rain chances now and then – but a front coming Sunday will increase rain chances Sunday PM

The Longer Range Forecast:

Front after outflow boundary after front will move across the state as we cool to highs only in the lower 50’sF Monday/Tuesday. The best rain totals will occur these days too- with ~1.40 inches of rainfall just these two days. The model gives us about 1.90 inches of rain up through Thursday. (Figure 2)

The GFS goes a bit crazy (which we should expect by now) with 2.50 inches of water before midday Thursday (Figure 3). The mountains get a foot or more of snow at higher elevations and a measurable amount of snow hits Ft. Collins, Lyons, Boulder, western Denver, and the Palmer Divide this week.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Saturday noon from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and for Colorado,over the next 5.5 days.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and for Colorado,over the next 5.5 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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