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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 18-19, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The heavy storms have moved out. The cool down has begun. Repeated cool fronts will keep us chilly (50'sF and 60'sF for highs ) this weekend and next week. Rain chances are small through the rest of the weekend but pick up again Sunday night with another cool front. Monday into Tuesday looks like a very wet period with over an inch of rainfall. Tuesday AM has the best chance for snow near I-25 locations.

Forecast Discussion:

If there are some storm reports in the morning (hail, damaging winds, or tornadoes), I'll update this site. There are fronts and low pressure systems wandering around the state this weekend (Figure 1). We have a cool weekend ahead with some rain chances now and then - but a front coming Sunday will increase rain chances Sunday PM

The Longer Range Forecast:

Front after outflow boundary after front will move across the state as we cool to highs only in the lower 50'sF Monday/Tuesday. The best rain totals will occur these days too- with ~1.40 inches of rainfall just these two days. The weatherunderground.com model gives us about 1.90 inches of rain up through Thursday. (Figure 2)

The GFS goes a bit crazy (which we should expect by now) with 2.50 inches of water before midday Thursday (Figure 3). The mountains get a foot or more of snow at higher elevations and a measurable amount of snow hits Ft. Collins, Lyons, Boulder, western Denver, and the Palmer Divide this week.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Saturday noon from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5.5 days.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5.5 days.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

51°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.89 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
82%
Wind
NW 0.5 mph
Gust
2.1 mph
Wind Chill
51 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 AM
59°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
66°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
71°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
75°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
76°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
70°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
65°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
62°F
Thunderstorms

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday

77 °F

Turning cloudy, warm; breezy, a stray thunderstorm this afternoon


Thunderstorms

Thursday Night

47 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, considerable cloudiness


Thunderstorms

Friday

69 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Rain

Saturday

46 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
7:50 PM

Based on AccuWeather data