In Brief:

We are mostly dry and warming to near 80F over the next couple of days and above 80F mid week. A cool down and ‘maybe’ some showers return for the weekend. There is a slight chance of a thundershower some afternoons rolling out of the mountains.

Forecast Discussion:

Beautiful weather continues with high pressure at the surface (Figure 1) and a ridge aloft (not shown). Other than a slight chance of wandering afternoon showers – we remain dry and keep warming up.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We should rise above 80’F Tuesday to Thursday (Figure 2). The rain chances through Thursday are very light with not much expected in town (Figure 3). Even the mountains will only see spotty higher amounts. A quick look at the 5 day snowfall map (Figure 4) looks very spring-like with only small amounts only at the higher elevations.

There is a cool down and some rain chances returning Friday and Sunday this week – but is too far to make a headline about. More later!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday noon from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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