In Brief:

We warm to the 60’sF today and 70’sF Sunday. We return to the 80’sF by Wednesday. We only have a minor chance of an afternoon -brief- storm Saturday and Tuesday. Nice Spring weather is back.

1pm Update:

Figure 1 update shows that some (non-severe) convection is possible this afternoon across (almost) the entire state. This is being powered by moisture-in-place, daytime heating, and a short wave coming down out of the north northwest. Spotty showers are occurring across northern Colorado and southern Wyoming at 1pm. There might be a lighting strike or two – maybe a few homes will see small hail in a stronger cell. It is a small fly in the ointment of a great weekend. Enjoy the warm up! Our next significant rain chance is way off at the end of the week.

Figure 1 update: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Saturday for Saturday.

End 1pm Update.

Forecast Discussion:

I’m going to take tonight off a bit and just point out that the weather will be very nice. Figure 1 shows the weather beginning to warm today with a small chance of an afternoon shower/thunderstorm moving off the mountains.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We warm to the low 80’sF by Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday may see a few afternoon showers wandering off the high country again (Figure 1). Beyond that there is an indication of a cool down and rain by the weekend, but we’ll see. Get away from your computer (after reading some other Longmont Observer headlines and advertisers) and go out and play!

Figure 1: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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