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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 1, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The storm system is slow to pull out. Rain showers (and snow showers) are possible through Thursday evening, but chances diminish each day as temperatures rise. We have a warm dry weekend ahead followed by a return of rain and thunderstorms next week.

Snow Reports:

Before we get to the discussion, let's look at what happened with the snow across the region. I called for 2-5 inches of snow. Longmont received about 3-4 inches (Figure A). Boulder saw 3-5 inches. Ft. Collins saw 3-7 inches (east to west across town). Estes park picked up 6-13 inches. Wow (Figure B). Denver saw just a trace in the east to 5 inches in the foothills (Figure C).

Forecast Discussion:

Our next wave came through Tuesday afternoon, but it did start as snow rather than rain (temperatures were at 41° F - it just want's to make me look bad!). There is a wide trough across the west with ripples traveling over the state on northwest flow for another couple of days (Figure 1). For Wednesday, the front is draped south of the state with more mountain showers and a few showers out on the Plains (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

The longer range forecast has the trough replaced by a ridge for the weekend (not shown) that is, in turn, replaced by another big trough next week (not shown). Enjoy this weekend and have your umbrella ready for thunderstorms on Tuesday with rain in the days beyond that (Figure 3). Might we get our first severe weather of the year along I-25 next week?!?!

Figure A: total new precipitation totals for Monday/Tuesday up to 7am for Boulder county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure B: total new precipitation totals for Monday/Tuesday up to 7am for Larimer county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure C: total new precipitation totals for Monday/Tuesday up to 7am for the Denver metro from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 1: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday morning. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com


Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

58°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
29.85 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
63%
Wind
NNE 1.6 mph
Gust
3.2 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
65°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
70°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
74°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
76°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
70°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
65°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
62°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
59°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

77 °F

Turning cloudy; warm


Thunderstorms

Thursday Night

47 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, considerable cloudiness


Thunderstorms

Friday

70 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

43 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Rain

Saturday

46 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
7:50 PM

Based on AccuWeather data