Forecast Discussion:

Our small storm is underway Wednesday pm (Figure 1 is the radar from 7:40 pm). As of 10 pm, we only have a dusting outside, but a bit more may fall before 1-2 am.

Figure 2 shows that down slope will cut off the precipitation around 2 am at the latest. Your car window and the roads might be slick and icy in the morning, but there shouldn’t be anything to shovel.

Figure 3, the HRRR model shows that through 11 am, we could get a dusting to 1/2 inch. Figure 4, the GFS, also shows the remaining hours of the storm giving us a coating or a bit more of snow.

The longer range forecast:

Starting tomorrow, we’ll try to figure out how much rain/snow comes in Friday night. Normal high temperatures now are 52°F. We’ll be a bit below normal for the next 10 days. That storm next Monday/Tuesday? We’ll talk about that after the next storm, Friday, has passed.

Figure 1: The current radar from 7:40pm Wednesday from Radar Scope iOS app.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the HRRR snowfall prediction up to 11am Thursday from weather5280.com
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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