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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – March 6, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

As the cold air slips away, I need to confess that I've been downplaying our actual next storm (Wed/Thur) since it looks like very little will occur in town. It does look like at least a 'bit' of an impact is possible. Figure 1 shows the next big Pacific soaker on its way in to the western states. The mountains get more snow (like Estes Park, which will be getting 2-4 inches on top of its big snow pack). The main trough is off the West Coast, but a little ripple is traveling downstream for Wednesday/Thursday (Figure 2 - short red line over Colorado).

Figure 3 shows period of snow lasting only about 4 hours. The GFS gives us a coating to 1/2 inch of snow Wednesday night (Figure 4). The NAM, in Figure 5, shows the snow staying off to the west by a few miles. The GEM (Figure 6), like the GFS, gives us a coating to 1/2 inch.

The longer range forecast:

The longer range forecast shows 50's F until the weekend when we only cool to the mid 40's F. There is another mini-storm for Friday PM (rain showers in the afternoon maybe?). Remember, don't forecast the next next storm until the next storm is done.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday noon from NCEP.
Figure 2: The forecast 500mb map of heights equal pressure created by the GFS and weather5280.com for Thursday noon.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

37°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.26 Rising
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
33 °F
Humidity
84%
Wind
NNE 4.9 mph
Gust
8.5 mph
Wind Chill
33 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
40°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
39°F
Rain
Today
7 PM
38°F
Rain
Today
8 PM
37°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
36°F
Flurries
Today
10 PM
36°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
36°F
Rain and snow
Tomorrow
12 AM
36°F
Rain and snow
Tomorrow
1 AM
35°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
35°F
Snow
Tomorrow
3 AM
34°F
Flurries
Tomorrow
4 AM
34°F
Snow

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Friday

41 °F

Chilly; rain and snow showers this morning with little or no accumulation followed by rain and drizzle this afternoon


Rain and snow

Friday Night

33 °F

Periods of snow; rain mixed in early, accumulating 1-3 inches; roads could be slippery


Flurries

Saturday

39 °F

A bit of morning snow with little or no accumulation; otherwise, cloudy and cold; storm total snowfall 1-3 inches


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

30 °F

A shower in places in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

64 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

41 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Monday

79 °F

Warmer with a blend of sun and clouds


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

66 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
7:44 PM

Based on AccuWeather data