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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – March 3, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

The Winter Weather Advisory continues (in this early post)

Winter Weather Advisory
Issued: 10:33 AM Mar. 2, 2019 – National Weather Service

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY... 
* WHAT...Snow expected, becoming heaviest this evening. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.
* WHERE...Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver, Greeley, Denver and Castle Rock.
* WHEN...From 9 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Forecast Discussion:

I'm posting Sunday's post as the arctic front is just entering Colorado Saturday early afternoon. We've already had 2 1/2 inches of snow in NE Longmont with the first couple of upper level waves. I've drawn the 10°F isotherm (line of equal temperature) in Figure 1 to roughly illustrate the advancing cold push of the main front.

The HRRR (Figure 2) paints Longmont with 3-4 inches of new snow by 1 am Mountain Time (as far out as this high resolution map goes). Snow will continue on to sunrise with more snow later Sunday afternoon. You can see the first and second punches in Figure 3. This all tapers off later Sunday night.

It will get pretty blustery this afternoon (Saturday) as the front moves in and temperatures will drop from near freezing Saturday morning to about 15°F by midnight then almost to zero by sunrise. The temperatures will drop and drop. The wet roads will ice over and the snow that falls will come down fluffier and fluffier.

The storm snowfall roundup:

The GFS in Figure 4 gives us 4-5 new inches through Monday am.

The GEM in Figure 5 give us 3-4 more inches through Monday am.

And finally, the NAM gives us a more impressive 4-6 inches for this time period.

The longer range forecast:

As we've said, over the last few days, we get above freezing midday Wednesday. There is a small chance of snow showers Wednesday night then a more focused storm Friday pm and Saturday am.

Figure 1: Actual 'surface' temperatures at 11am Saturday with 10F isotherm drawn as a front from the HRRR and weather5280.com.
Figure 2: the HRRR snowfall prediction up to 1am Sunday from weather5280.com
Figure 3 the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 2 days.

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

52°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.21 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
38 °F
Humidity
58%
Wind
SW 2.2 mph
Gust
3.9 mph
Wind Chill
52 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
50°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
48°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
47°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
46°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
44°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
43°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
42°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
41°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
40°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
43°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
47°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
52°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Friday

62 °F

Cool with clouds giving way to some sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

65 °F

Partly sunny with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Saturday Night

45 °F

A couple of thundershowers in the evening; mostly cloudy


Rain

Sunday

70 °F

Mostly cloudy with occasional rain and a thunderstorm


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

41 °F

Becoming clear


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny and nice


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

46 °F

Partly cloudy


Showers

Tuesday

75 °F

Mainly cloudy with a couple of showers in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Tuesday Night

45 °F

Mainly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:49 AM
Sunset
8:05 PM

Based on AccuWeather data