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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – March 20, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Happy Spring! Spring begins today at 3:58 PM MDT

The cool air that pushed trough yesterday, dropping showers that evaporated before reaching the ground, is entering Texas and Oklahoma (clearly visible in Figure 1). A ridge overhead gives us beautiful (almost spring-like) weather today. Enjoy.

The longer range forecast. 

The weather changes as troughs begin to crash into our state by the end of the week - lead by the cut off low that will put more rain down in the desert (it is REALLY green in the deserts of AZ right now - with wildflower blooms going on) and snow in the mountains. By Saturday, a number of short waves will pass over the state creating, first, mountain snows, low land rains, then some snow chances as each trough drags a bit of cool air in (Figure 2 and Figure 3).

From Figure 3, we have rain showers beginning Sunday and continuing to Tuesday AM. By Monday PM, Longmont might see a coating to a 1/2 inch of snow (Figure 4) and 1/10th to 1/4th inch of water (Figure 5). We'll keep an eye on it as the week progresses.

Since I'll be traveling back Thursday and Friday - I might have to post another double day post then to insure against a no-internet day. It is just not ubiquitous yet!

Figure 1: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Tuesday PM.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Saturday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4 : the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday PM.
Figure 5 : the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday PM.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

51°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.6 Steady
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
81%
Wind
NW 3.8 mph
Gust
12.3 mph
Wind Chill
51 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 AM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
59°F
Cloudy
Today
11 AM
61°F
Cloudy
Today
12 PM
64°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
66°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
2 PM
68°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
3 PM
70°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
69°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
66°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
63°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
59°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
56°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Thunderstorms

Friday

70 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

47 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data