Forecast Discussion:

Wonderful quietness keeps being quiet. The snow is vanishing quickly in most locations across the lower elevations. Figure 1 shows our weak front has pushed down across the state, so we’ll only be in the upper 40’s F today. But it still will feel nice. The atmospheric moisture (water vapor) satellite image- Figure 2 – shows just dry air upstream of our state.

The longer range forecast:

We return to normal temperatures Wednesday and climb to above normal by the weekend. Another (fairly weak) cut off low forms in the southwest U.S. and pumps some moisture up later in the week, but we’ll be above freezing day and night – expect some rain chances for a change. Nothing scary. (I call rain self-shoveling-snow.)

Enjoy it! (I’m perched on a narrow data stream in the central AZ mountains this week for Spring Break. I won’t say what the weather is like out here.)

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: The water vapor satellite image from Sunday night from NOAA. Longmont is the pink dot.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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