Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 3, 2019

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Est. Reading Time: 2 minutes
Figure 3: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Sunday for Monday.

In Brief:

As the west coast trough drifts eastward very slowly, we’ll have elevated chances of afternoon thunderstorms for the next couple of days (Monday and Tuesday). We stay near 80F for a high most of the week with a hint of a cool down at the end of next weekend. There is a marginal risk of severe weather today (Monday) along I-25 and eastward.

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure at the surface means that warm weather and sunny conditions will rule for this week (Figure 1). The upper air trough out west will start to move towards us (red line and Low center “L” in figure 2). We will have a Marginal risk (a 1 on a scale of 1-5 – Figure 3) of severe weather right along I-25 and eastward today. Hail and high winds will be the primary threat again. Rainfall over the next 48 hours (Monday/Tuesday) will be quite spotty with a few people seeing up to an inch of water or more. Most will get nothing to a quarter inch to fall (Figure 4).

The Longer Range Forecast:

We will continue to see afternoon showers and thunderstorms move off the mountains each afternoon. Who knows who will get hit each day (Figure 5). We cool a bit on Wednesday then it is back to the 80’sF. We’ll have to watch this cool down to the 60’sF at the end of next weekend. Will it happen?

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday night from NCEP.
Figure 1: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Tuesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Sunday for Monday.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 2 days.
Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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