In Brief:

We keep warming a few degrees each day until we kiss 90°F on Wednesday and clearly rise above it Thursday-Saturday. We cool to normal next week with storm chance (low chances) noted this afternoon and Saturday through Wednesday.

Forecast Discussion:

We have entered a bit of the summer doldrums – I’m preparing to camp in an internet-less abyss Wednesday through Sunday – so this came at a good time.

We have high pressure in place here today (Figure 1) and a ridge building that will be near the state through the 4th of July. You can see it building and moving a bit back and forth over Colorado in the animation of the upper air pattern in Figure 2 (animated GIF).

There is a small chance of severe weather in isolated thunderstorms out on the Plains this week – but pretty far to the east.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We will probably break 90°F for the first time tomorrow (Wednesday) and park in highs that are in the lower 90s°F until we drop back down on Monday to just a bit above normal (Figure 3).

There is a return to afternoon storm chances Saturday through Wednesday next week (the 4th of July-eve) -the pink “*”‘s in Figure 3.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for late Wednesday nigh from NCEP.
Figure 2: Animation of the 500mb pattern for the next week from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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