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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 23, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Rain will continue through Sunday afternoon (maybe finally tapering off around 1-3pm). We quickly dry out and rise back to the 80's F. That begins our warm-up to real heat in the lower 90's F (our first 90°+ F day) Thursday. There is a hint of things cooling a bit at the end of next weekend into next week with increasing afternoon thundershowers.

Forecast Discussions:

Rain, heavy at times, continue off and on overnight Saturday into Sunday tapering off in the afternoon. Figure 1 is the rain coverage around midnight Saturday/Sunday. Figure 2 is Sunday later afternoon. Some showers will be possible in places.

Weatherunderground.com gives us about 1/3rd inch more rainfall after 6pm Saturday - but a thundershower will quickly dump more than that (Figure 2).

The HRRR gives us 0.1 to 0.25 inch of rain by 7 a.m, Sunday. The GEM model gives us 0.75 to 1 inch more for the remaining storm through Sunday evening (Figure 5). The higher elevations still pick up 1-2 inches above around 9500 feet and up to 3 inches at the highest elevations (Figure 6).

The Longer Range Forecast:

The long range is quite boring now - with 80's F returning Monday with our first 90°+ F day most likely being Thursday. That heat wave should begin to wane at the start of next-next week (Figure 3).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for late Saturday night midnight from NCEP.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for late Sunday night midnight from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 15 hours through 7am Sunday.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado,through Tuesday AM.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado,through Tuesday AM.

Current Weather

Partly sunny

Partly sunny

61°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.62 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
39 °F
Humidity
44%
Wind
NE 7.3 mph
Gust
13.2 mph
Wind Chill
61 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
61°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
7 PM
58°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
55°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
52°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
44°F
Rain

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

69 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

41 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

44 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data