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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 2, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

After a night (Saturday) of a few strong storms around the state, Sunday will be a touch cooler with a better shot of storms - some severe - in the afternoon hours. The week unfolds with temperatures near 80F each day with a chance of afternoon (occasionally strong) each afternoon. Get your hikes in in the morning.

Forecast Discussion:

The visible satellite image (Figure 1) shows you how the Earth would look with your eyes from space. The milky material in Montana, western Canada and stretching down into the Dakotas and even Missouri and the Ohio Valley is smoke from fires way up north. The HRRR smoke model shows only a bit of the smoke near Colorado today (Saturday) and it then pushes east (Figure 2).

We've had the strongest storms up in southern Wyoming and down around southern Denver Saturday afternoon (Figure 3). Some good hail fell and is currently falling (as I post this Saturday afternoon).

The Longer Range Forecast:

For Sunday, the front is still draped across the state (Figure 4), upper level energy is moving in from the west, and energy will exist for more wide-spread and stronger - hail and damaging wind producing storms. The SPC has painted Longmont with a slight risk (2 on a scale of 1-5) up I-25 and just a bit west of the interstate. A marginal risk extends a bit up the foothills (Figure 5). As always - frequent lightning, powerful damaging winds, and large hail may be produced by the stronger cells.

Beyond this - we have a fairly routine week with temperatures around 80F and afternoon showers/thunderstorms coming off the mountains. (I'm saving space and not including that 10 day graphic for once).

Figure 1: The visible and color satellite image from the GOES-E satellite. Milky haze across the northern U.S. is smoke from the Canadian fires.
Figure 2: The HRRR smoke forecast for Sunday afternoon from NOAA.
Figure 3: The radar image from Sunday afternoon form the iOS app MyRadar.
Figure 4: The forecast surface map for Sunday night from NCEP.
Figure 5: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Saturday for Sunday.

Current Weather

Partly sunny

Partly sunny

64°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
29.82 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
18 °F
Humidity
17%
Wind
SE 4.8 mph
Gust
11 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
42°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

More sun than clouds


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

32 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

48 °F

Cloudy and chilly with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data