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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 16, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We have daily afternoon chances of rain and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday with below normal temperatures. Heaver rain amounts are expected Monday and Tuesday. Some severe weather (hail and high winds are the primary risk) is possible Sunday afternoon.

Forecast Discussion:

The front is in place down the Plains and up into the Foothills (Figure 1). This has stabilized the atmosphere significantly (Saturday afternoon). Moisture is more limited (especially north of I70) with precipitable amounts only around 0.63 inches this morning at DIA. Except where the lucky thundershower travels, most locations will see less than a 1/10th of an inch of water today (Saturday afternoon) and severe weather is not expected (Figure 3).

The Longer Range Forecast:

Tomorrow (Sunday) we have a couple of periods of rainfall - around noon and around sunset - possible (Figure 2). There is a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) for thunderstorms to create damaging hail and high winds over NE Colorado.

The GFS gives most locations under 1/2 inch of water over the next 5 days with lucky locations getting 1-2 inches (Figure 5). The NAM, over the next 2.5 days, shows how very spotty this convective precipitation will be (Figure 6).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Sunday AM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Saturday for Saturday.
Figure 4: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Saturday for Sunday.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado,over the next 2.5 days.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

63°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.75 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
22%
Wind
W 5.9 mph
Gust
13.7 mph
Wind Chill
63 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
39°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data