We enter a 4-5 day period of warmish weather with daily weak cool fronts that will kick off showers and thunderstorms around midday and into the afternoons. Severe weather is not expected over this period (at this time). This site will be updated if changes. Our five day rainfall total will probably remain below 1 inch.
Our first not-so-cold front came through today (Friday) and will still be draped down the front range Saturday afternoon (Figure 1). Widespread showers will peak between mid-morning and mid-afternoon Saturday.
Temperatures are a bit cooler Saturday: in the mid 70’s F. Diminished rain chances continue into the the night. Most likely about 1/10th of an inch of rainfall will hit the area Saturday, more under a thundershower cell (Figure 2).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Each midday you can see a pressure dip, the winds increase, a dip in the temperatures and increase in rain chances for a few hours (Figure 2) through Tuesday. Most seem to time with max daytime heating (to increase instability). This is all driven by a trough-y pattern in the west with many short waves drifting through the overall upper air pattern (chaotic red dashes in Figure 3). Over the next 5 days, from the GFS, Longmont receives (in this particular run of the model) around 3/4th of an inch of water. Like our longer range glimpse yesterday – cooler than normal and wetter than normal. We are on track with that forecast already.