In Brief:

Today will be clear and dry (Wednesday). Clouds increase through the rest of the week with increasing afternoon storm chances each day until the weekend when afternoon storm chances get a bit greater. We stay near 80F for the next week as well (a bit warmer Thur/Fri, a bit cooler Sunday).

Forecast Discussion:

There are no nearby storm systems today (Wednesday). We are high and dry with just a few afternoon mountain showers off to the west (Figure 1).

Simple and straightforward.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We warm to the mid 80’sF over the next couple of days as a ridge aloft passes over (Figure 2). The ridge is the blue line in figure 3.

By the weekend (Figure 4) that ridge is replace by a trough (red line) that means cooler temperatures and better afternoon storm chances with colder air aloft (Figure 2). There aren’t headlines here except – overall nice weather is here!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday night from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Saturday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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