In Brief:

We settle in to a 10 day period of afternoon thundershowers (picking up some for the weekend) and high temperature a bit below normal with nighttime temperatures right at normal. Nothing much to read here for a little while. (Can you say that in a news article?)

The Forecast Discussion:

Figure 1 shows a weak front past our state and mostly clear skies across Colorado. There are a few showers closer to the low up to our northeast.

We warm to the upper 70’sF for the next couple of days (Figure 2) and afternoon thundershower chances return as well (we only had some clouds form in the mountains Monday afternoon).

The Longer Range Forecast:

In Figure 2, I’ve crudely drawn the normal high temperature line (86F) and normal low temperature (53F). You can see that the nighttime temperatures are really close to normal, but the highs remain below normal for the next 10 days.

There is an enhancement in the storm chances Friday through Sunday that we’ll watch as the week passes. The GFS shows the spotty nature of rain over the next 5 days (Figure 3). A few lucky spots will pick up an inch of rain but most only get a quarter of an inch or less.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Tusday night from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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