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In Brief:
We have one more chance of severe weather on posting day (Monday) - then moisture levels drop and a ridge warms the upper atmosphere. Rain chances drop to nearly zero for a couple of days. Peak heat hits Thursday - then afternoon storm chances return as the heat drops back towards normal (near 90F) on through the weekend and beyond.
Forecast Discussion:
Our latest ribbon of moisture is still over Colorado Monday afternoon (Figure 1 - green arrow) but dry air is moving in from the west (orange arrow). With a trough approaching - we still have a chance of severe weather (a Marginal Risk 1 on a scale of 1-5) for hail and high winds. The minimal tornado risk is further out on the eastern Plains (Figure 3). Our rain chances over the next 3 days all occur Monday afternoon and evening. It will be spotty and minimal, unless you get a direct hit from a thunderstorm (Figure 4).
The Longer Range Forecast:
The 500mb upper air flow 36 hours from now shows the same flow pattern today overlaid on the ridge that is moving in. This will be a very different flow pattern (aka DRY - Figure 5). Storm chances resume on our day of maximum heating (mid 90'sF on Thursday) then the ridge weakens around Colorado and moisture can again form our afternoon thunderstorm chances on through the weekend.
