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In Brief:
We just get into the 90'sF briefly Wednesday (post day) and Thursday then cool for the weekend into the 80'sF. Shower chances increase Friday-Saturday then we return to highs right around 90F with afternoon storms into next week. An isolated severe storm is possible Thursday along I-25 for hail and high winds.
4:30pm Update:
I've been having family fun for Independence Day - but I can't miss posting the tornado watch and Slight Risk for severe weather that is close to town.
Issued: 3:03 PM Jul. 4, 2019 – National Weather Service
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 485 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN COLORADO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO ELBERT LINCOLN IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO LARIMER IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS JEFFERSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF AKRON, BENNETT, BOULDER, BROOMFIELD, BYERS, CASTLE ROCK, DENVER, FORT COLLINS, FORT MORGAN, GOLDEN, GREELEY, HOLYOKE, JULESBURG, KIOWA, LIMON, (ed: Longmont) AND STERLING.
Forecast Discussion:
Drier air is sliding in over the state today (Figure 1 - orange and red colors over Colorado). The preciptable water is only at 0.66 inches today but dew points (surface moisture) is pretty high at 53F. This low level moisture, afternoon heating, and an upper level wave passing north of the state will kick off severe weather just a few miles to our northeast and up into Wyoming/Nebraska and the Dakotas (Figure 2). Hail and high winds are the main threat.
The Longer Range Forecast:
For Independence Day - the ingredients are still here for severe weather in the afternoon and early evening back to I-25 communities. Hail and high winds will be the most likely threat (Figure 3). When fireworks begin it should be 76F with 50% cloud cover and a small chance of showers (about 15% chance). The 7! Timer model output has us at 60% cloud cover and 82F with showers possible when the fireworks begin (Figure 6).
We cool down with a cool front Friday (brought down by that passing short wave) and we return to the lower 80'sF for both Friday and Saturday with a better chance of rain and showers. (Figure 5). The marginal severe weather threat is currently expected just east of I-25 Friday (Figure 4).
It won't effect us, but it is interesting to see a category 4 hurricane drifting towards Hawaii (Figure 7) - it will be a tropical depression by the time it gets close to the islands.
